WDDDDT? #47 AKA ERROR #2: “Mama said…”

April 7 2025: DAY 78 of 100(posted 4/8/25)

Whew, this is amazing, watching the stock market unfold on a Monday morning after a few days (3 plus a weekend) of the Execution of The Tariffs … “Manic Monday” came to mind but I went with a true oldie instead…THE SHIRELLE’s sang it best, a #4 hit in April of 1961…

Mama said there'll be days like this

There'll be days like this, Mama said

(Mama said, Mama said)

Mama said there'll be days like this

There'll be days like this, my mama said

(Mama said, Mama said)

   So, what does a poor boy do…time will tell…One economist, JEREMY SEIGEL a WHARTON SCHOOL PROFESSOR EMERITUS consider these tariffs to be a “human error, a policy error which can be easily corrected”. Dr. Seigel was not a fan of the way/extent the tariffs were implemented. Me thinks, Siegel should ask #47 for the return of Daffy Don’s WHARTON diploma. However, I agree wholeheartedly with the good doctor implied, that the markets can and will uptick…eventually. The market, for me, is a long, long term thing. Selling now will prove disastrous for any small time investor.  You will take a loss and regret it later. Leave your investments, save your cash, await the bottom, then jump in the pool.

   The chaos of today’s market, or the 2 TRILLION lost Thursday and Friday of the previous week made me think…”What about”, the dreaded “whataboutism” that I hate but needed to investigate. Let’s look at a few segments in presidential time to compare/contrast prices or rates of oil (per barrel), eggs (dozen), gold (ounce), unemployment percentage, and lastly the price of one share of APPLE stock…The time segments are:

January 1, 2017: OBAMA last days

January 20, 2017: Trump enters as #45

January 20, 2019: #45 Midterm

January 20, 2021: Trump leaves office/Biden In

January 20, 2023: Biden Midterm

January 20, 2025: #47 Inauguration Day (plus 4/7/25)

   As stated I do believe that long term investment is a good thing, stay the course. The economy always has corrections and even after CoVid’s took a huge chunk the economy revived with a bull market returning to record highs. This current nosedive, while self-inflicted by our Wharton School Graduate (Class of 1968), will follow the course as economic cycles do, returning naturally in 18 - 24 months. However, I do NOT buy into JD (Last Name Changed 3 times) suggesting we offer “patience for these tariffs”. This tariff threat is losing us 11 trillion dollars (today’s estimate since Thursday) and any  3% NYSE drops per day is unacceptable. AND I will not accept #47 claiming any credit for a “recovery” when it does occur by saying “I told you so…” His “reciprocal” tariff, a true misnomer, is like a best buddy kicking you in the balls to see how you will react and still remain best buds.

   Historically, the American investor will see a natural cyclical uptick. The side effects of these tariffs can/might be devastating in the next few cycles. Interest rates, mortgage rates, unemployment, prices of every day items, possible economic warfare (with China) will slap us across the face. Those items are different from the what the Dow will do.

   China will not be hurt by any extravagant surcharges. We import billions of dollars of their goods. China imports virtually nothing from us. Many Chinese goods already under severe tariffs from when #45 was there the first time and his successor Biden (100% on electric cars) sidestep the tariffs by using other international corporations to sell the goods. One example would be solar panels made almost exclusively by the Chinese, entering the US at a smaller rate from an ally of the Chinese.

   This wave of tariffs will undoubtably bring short term economic pain, probably increasing the possibility of a recession but I’m more concerned with any long term damage it will do to our decades old trade relationships and the US standing around the globe, aka The USA, the old friend who kicks you in the balls. Time to seek new (trade) relationships like China, Russia, Iran, etc.

   To ease some minds let’s look at the market long term. Historically, (Schwab Investments) the stock market has always returned to its previous peak after a bear market, usually within a few years. The average bull ran for about five years, while the average bear market lasted roughly 13 months. The longest bear market lasted about two and a half years. The shortest was the pandemic-fueled bear market in early 2020, which lasted a mere 33 days. If only…

Oh, Ye, gentle mistresses and most distinguished gentlemen, and others… The opinions and observations are solely my own views, and I take full responsibility for any errors of fact, not to mention any predictions that prove to be wildly inaccurate.